# forecast 1 answer below »

REGR

EXPMA2

EXPMA1

11WMA

9MA

Data

Year

Period

Value

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

500 kwh Electricity – APU000072621

Cost in dollars and cents

The data

The data is real and were downloaded from the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) web site

Here’s what we will do with this time series data

Since we have a “quality of Fit” measure(MSE) for each model

It is a time series data. Data are the average cost of 500 KwH of electricity recorded on a monthly basis.

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Summary

REGR

EXPMA2

EXPMA1

11WMA

9MA

Data

Year

Period

Value

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

500 kwh Electricity – APU000072621

Cost in dollars and cents

The data

The data is real and were downloaded from the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) web site

Here’s what we will do with this time series data

Since we have a “quality of Fit” measure(MSE) for each model

It is a time series data. Data are the average cost of 500 KwH of electricity recorded on a monthly basis.

It is the same data variable(cost fo 500 KwH) recorded over time

From the name, it is obvious that the variable is the US average price of 500 KwH.

1. 11 Period Moving Average(11 MA)

2. 11 period optimized weighted(11WMA)

3. Exponential Model

4. Linear Regression Model

We will compare them to select the BEST among the four models

We want to fit a FORECASTING model to predict the average price for future month: May 2011

Fit the following FOUR mathematical Models to the data and calculate MSE for each Model

Using the BEST model, we will generate a Forecast for May 2011.

MSE

11WMA

Regression

The BEST Model is:

I have listed the URL below the data.

The data were modified slightly to fit our needs.

Forecasted

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

SUM

X

EXPMA1

EXPMA2

MSE(Part 2)

a (part 5)

a (part 6)

MSE (part 5)

MSE (part 6)

Explanation for Part 7 goes here

alpha(a)

Forecast

(Name of the Model)

9MA

MSE(Part 3)

(Transcribe the value/number. Do not link cells)

Part 4. Compare the two MSEs here

Forecast for May 2012 using the BEST of these five Model…

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