forecast 1 answer below »

Summary
REGR
EXPMA2
EXPMA1
11WMA
9MA
Data
Year
Period
Value
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap
500 kwh Electricity – APU000072621
Cost in dollars and cents
The data
The data is real and were downloaded from the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) web site
Here’s what we will do with this time series data
Since we have a “quality of Fit” measure(MSE) for each model
It is a time series data. Data are the average cost of 500 KwH of electricity recorded on a monthly basis.

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Summary
REGR
EXPMA2
EXPMA1
11WMA
9MA
Data
Year
Period
Value
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap
500 kwh Electricity – APU000072621
Cost in dollars and cents
The data
The data is real and were downloaded from the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) web site
Here’s what we will do with this time series data
Since we have a “quality of Fit” measure(MSE) for each model
It is a time series data. Data are the average cost of 500 KwH of electricity recorded on a monthly basis.
It is the same data variable(cost fo 500 KwH) recorded over time
From the name, it is obvious that the variable is the US average price of 500 KwH.
1. 11 Period Moving Average(11 MA)
2. 11 period optimized weighted(11WMA)
3. Exponential Model
4. Linear Regression Model
We will compare them to select the BEST among the four models
We want to fit a FORECASTING model to predict the average price for future month: May 2011
Fit the following FOUR mathematical Models to the data and calculate MSE for each Model
Using the BEST model, we will generate a Forecast for May 2011.
MSE
11WMA
Regression
The BEST Model is:
I have listed the URL below the data.
The data were modified slightly to fit our needs.
Forecasted
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
SUM
X
EXPMA1
EXPMA2
MSE(Part 2)
a (part 5)
a (part 6)
MSE (part 5)
MSE (part 6)
Explanation for Part 7 goes here
alpha(a)
Forecast
(Name of the Model)
9MA
MSE(Part 3)
(Transcribe the value/number. Do not link cells)
Part 4. Compare the two MSEs here
Forecast for May 2012 using the BEST of these five Model…

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