Exploring Data Patterns and Forecast Accuracy:…

Week 02 Discussion – Exploring Data Patterns and Forecast Accuracy:
Within the context of the example you provided in the first week, I would like for you to consider whether you would use a causal model or time series model (actually, this broad distinction betweenforecasting methods wascovered last week). If you would choose a causal model, what variables would you include as potential predictors foryourforecast variable? If youwould choose a time series approach, what time series component(s) would you expect to be the most dominant? If neither is appropriate, explain why.
Also, if you had to choose just one measureof forecast accuracy to evaluate your model, which would you use?Explain your choice.
Please use the ppts that I have uploaded in completing the above discussion questions.
Example that I provided in the first week is the following:
Forecasting in Information Technology-
In the article, worst forecasting practices in corporate America and their solutionsĀ­-case studies, Dilgard states one of the solutions to forecasting problems to “develop a collaborative, consensus approach to forecasting” (Dilgard, p.9). He further states, “forecasts should not be done in a vacuum and should not be completely owned and executed by a single functional area” (Dilgard, p.9). I completely agree with this approach to forecasting as being a part of the information technology (IT) team, it is important for me to be aware of the changing IT environment as well as forecasting the needs of the organization through a collaborative approach rather than a single approach in respect to IT to be able to have adequate knowledge about new developments within the information systems and technology industry. It is important to forecast the same effectively to implement those changes in the organization which will have positive impact on the performance of the organization.
The decision environment in IT for forecasting is strongly based on the external environment and the changes in the technology and global environment. Also, a forecast should not be changed once it has been implemented (Dilgard, p.10). In my last project, forecasting occurred as a team approach and new development projects, the intensity of the project, and the time allotted for the project along with the project approach was forecasted months to a possible one year in advance. Many external factors were taken into consideration when forecasting as it was important to analyze the competitors’ processing and operations before making the forecasting decision. A crucial part of the IT industry is for the organization to have a competitive edge in the market by forecasting effectively.
In this globalization era, the companies are focusing strongly on adopting information technology into their organizations as IT and system databases are ways which helps in simplifying the operations for that organization to achieve that competitive edge in the market. Many of the areas of IT that require effective forecasting include the various departments within the organization such as the accounting, marketing, human resource, and operations. Through forecasting effectively, it helps the organization to simplify the functions and goals of the various departments. One important factor to consider is to treat such types of forecast as a forecast rather than a business plan to achieve the goals of the various departments within the organization (Dilgard, p.9).
Information technology (IT) has always for many years impacted many organizations in a positive way, and have helped the companies through various aspects as it is considered to be a revolutionary, restructuring impact that has been expected and touted for over a decade. Moreover, with a strong focus on the changing needs and requirements of the organization and the advancements in the speed and capacity of computing devices, with a pervasive growth of the Internet, digital storage, wireless and portable devices, and multimedia content, the organizations have greatly been affected and have greatly affected the working of the organization.
The loss function of forecasting is highly based on the changing environment on the bases of technology. The potential loss in case of mis-forecast would affect the entire organization, especially the IT portion of the company if it changes its information system with the anticipated forecast, and the technology on the base of which the changes have been made. If this occurs then all of the expenses in respect to research and development, training of the employees, and implementation of the new information system will be effected. All of the departments of an organization has a strong linkage to the information technology department as most, if not all, organizations function through IT. Therefore any changes made to the technology department will change the working of all other various departments associated with the IT department.
The forecasting object would be the technology that is currently being adopted by the company to cater to the various needs and requirements of the organization as per the latest technology in the global market. Also, the forecasting statement would focus on analyzing the changes in the technology that are required in the organization to improve on the performance and the efficiency of the organization. However, forecasting the performance alone is not enough as all other areas of IT for the various functions of the departments as mentioned above needs to be reviewed and forecasted appropriately.
When planning the forecast in IT, the minimum horizon time that needs to be considered should be of one to two years as technology is one of the most important aspects of the organization which takes time to enhance or change. The technique that should be used for forecasting should be on the basis of the Delphi method, mission flow analysis, and scenario writing. More of the qualitative approach is required to forecast appropriately the various aspects of the information technology system within the organization.

Don't use plagiarized sources. Get Your Custom Essay on
Exploring Data Patterns and Forecast Accuracy:…
Just from $13/Page
Order Essay

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

*

*