Answer the 6 question in 2 to 3 pages
i have done all the commands but i need the write up part(forecasting)
if there is anyadditionalchanges i make i will send it before the due date than k you
Purpose: Use the seasonal multiplicative
Holt-Winters method to develop a forecast for the non-seasonally adjusted
monthly Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (HOUSTNSA) for January
through December 2013. Note: the data is scaled in thousands of units.
Task: Use the tssmooth command with the
multiplicative seasonal Holt-Winters method to create a forecast of monthly
housing starts for January through December 2013, a monthly seasonal index, the
95% forecast confidence interval, a graph of the results, goodness-of-fit
measurements, and a chart of the forecast vs. actual values with upper and
lower 95% forecast intervals.
monthly Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (HOUSTNSA) series from
the Federal Reserve FRED Economic Data and make a forecast for the next 12
months and provide the following information:
(1) The forecast for each of the 12 months
from January 2013 through December 2013.
(2) The 95% upper and lower forecast
confidence interval for each of the forecasted months.
(3) The seasonal index for each of the 12
seasonal periods (months).
(4) The mean squared error, root mean
squared error (mean absolute deviation), and percentage error of the in-sample
(5) The number and percentage of forecast
observations that fall outside of the upper and lower 95% forecast intervals.
(6) A chart of the actual vs. forecasted results
including the upper and lower 95% forecast interv