Problem: The Vintage Restaurant is on Captiva Island,
a resort community near Fort Myers,
Florida. The restaurant, which is
owned and operated by Karen Payne, has just completed its third year of
operation. During that time, Karen has sought to establish a reputation for the
restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh
seafood. The efforts by Karen and her staff have proven successful, and her
restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island.
Karen has concluded that to plan for the growth of the restaurant in the
future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and
beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Karen has the following
data ($1000s) on total food and beverage sales for the three years of
operation. The data can be found in an Excel spreadsheet (Lost Beverage and
Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant.
Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and
a. A graph of the time series.
b. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes
for each month, and comment on the high and low seasonal sales months. Do the
seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss.
c. A forecast of sales for January through December of the fourth year.
d. Recommendations as to when the system that you have developed should be
updated to account for new sales data.
e. Any detailed calculations of your analysis in the appendix of your report.
f. Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. What
was your forecast error? If this is a large error, Karen may be puzzled about
the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you
do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure?