Global Financial Crisis and Nigerian Stock Market Volatility
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY Abdul ADAMU Department of Occupation Administration, Nasarawa State University, Keffi – Nasarawa State. [email protected] com [email protected] com Tel. +2348029445391, +2348064851648. Tract presented at the National Conference on “Managing the challenges of Global Financial Turning-point in Developing Economies” organised by the Faculty of Administration, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nasarawa State – Nigeria held betwixt March 9 – 11, 2010. Abstract
The floating global financial spining-point is no desireer tidings but a verity. Our cunning shapers in the state endure been proven crime established on their topic that the state was insulated. Some of the sectors that endure felt the fever of the spining-point are the banking sector and the accumulation negotiate. In the accumulation negotiate, endowors obsolete trillions of naira due the downward gravitate in the appraisements of accumulation. Established on this, the consider assesses the size of the accumulation negotiate inconsistency in the limit previous the spining-point and the limit of the spining-point.
Using the All Distribute Index, the produce for sundry months were computed, reaching statistics of the produce was adapted and the inconsistency of the negotiate was regardd using the criterion derangement. It was projectt that the accumulation negotiate is exceedingly irresolute in the limit of the financial spining-point than the limit previous it. The monition is that the profoundness of instruments in the accumulation negotiate should be multigenous in conditions of urban securities than equity instruments. Requisite The global economic spining-point, which primitive emerged as a financial spining-point in one state, has now enlightenedly domiciled itself behind a spellliness no depth yet in spectacle.
The cosmos-fellow-creatures dispensation is in a learned recession, and the betray of gravitateing into a deflationary stratagem cannot be dismissed for manifold considerable countries (UNCTAD, 2009). The novel global economic spining-point was a end of economic and political events in the United States. What launched behind a spellliness amended federal cunning and indigent hypothecation lending practices, ended in a cosmos-people-wide economic meltdown that unfurl relish a bane (Beck, 2008). The US sub-prime hypothecation negotiate triggered the spining-point as a end of faith crunch behind a spelllinessin this negotiate.
Most countries environing the cosmos-fellow-creatures endure vestibuleed this ‘tsunami’ pragmatically behind a spellliness casualty funding buttress for pertinent sectors, so as to console the impression of the spining-point on economies as polite as dodgeing the full desuetude of the interpolitical financial classification (Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi, 2009). Despite these buttresss by sundry councils in the produce bailout, it does not bung some countries to go into recession, accordingly of enlightened dismiss in their opulence, manifesting itself in gravitateing fertile keep-aparts, augmentation, avocation and thrift.
At primitive, the straightforward impression of the financial spining-point on the African economies was poor as African countries has enfeebled integration behind a spellliness the global dispensation and most retail banks in the keep-akeep-adivorce refrained from endowing in the disagreeable property from the US and other keep-akeep-adivorce of the cosmos-fellow-creatures (Adamu, 2008). This is why most commentators conmanage that Africa is so far insulated from the straightforward property of the financial spining-point at lowest in the short-run. But now, this is not the condition as the admonish of unavocation and liquidity compress is succeedly intolerable.
In Nigeria, relish other African developing countries, the primal reply to the spining-point was rather mild, as if our cunning shapers do not conceive the starch of the spining-point. Timeliness the defensehither countries were occupied hard to bailout their dispensation in command to console the property of the spining-point, our administerers were concealment beneath the sham of insulation. The most clear sector nature hit by this spining-point in the Nigerian dispensation is the principal negotiate.
The Nigerian Accumulation Exchange, the flagship of Nigeria’s principal negotiate has witnessed unexampled mutiny past April, 2008. First, the downward slide of the accumulations on the negotiate dominated by the banking sector made experts obstinate and regulatory authorities jittery. Timeliness accusing fingers were nature sharp at incongruous straightforwardions as the object of this inconsistency in the appraisements of accumulations, the negotiate began a free-gravitate never witnessed in the truth of principal negotiate operations in Nigeria.
Both topical and irrelevant endowors who had enslaved benefit of the optimal yield on boardings on the accumulation diversify began to scamper elsewhere in desperation. Some of the doubts that are material to this diverge in the principal negotiate are; what is the size of the accumulation appraisement inconsistency on the Nigerian Accumulation Exchange? What are the rudiments that impressioned the accumulation appraisement inconsistency? To what size has this inconsistency in accumulation appraisement improbable endowors?
What can the regulatory pattern do to incinduce this completion? This tract allure address the primitive doubt amending aggravate. This keep-akeep-adivorce is the requisite and the quiet of the tract is finished as follows; exception two examideficiency the concept of financial spining-point, the Nigerian principal negotiate and the spining-point, then accumulation negotiate inconsistency. In exception three, we examine axioms and methodology, then ends and examineions in exception disgusting and finally, abstract and conclusions in exception five. The concept of financial spining-point
The ordain financial spining-point is applied broadly to a contrariety of situations in which some financial institutions or property suddenly induce a enlightened keep-akeep-adivorce of their appreciate. In the 19th and existing 20th centuries, manifold financial crises were associated behind a spellliness banking panics, and manifold recessions coincided behind a spellliness these panics. Other situations that are frequently enumerated financial crises embody accumulation negotiate crashes and the discerption of other financial bubbles, circulation crises, and parequality defaults (Kindleberger & Aliber, 2005, Laeven & Valencia, 2008).
Some economic theories that explained financial crises embodys the Cosmos-fellow-creatures classifications plea which explained the betrays and perils, which requisite industrial nations allure be oppositeness (and are now oppositeness) at the end of the desire economic cycle, which began behind the oil spining-point of 1973. Timeliness Coordination games, a veracious vestibule to modelling financial crises endure emphasized that there is frequently unequivocal feedback betwixt negotiate keep-aparticipants' sentences (Krugman, 2008).
Positive feedback implies that there may be pompous diversifys in asset appreciates in reply to inferior diversifys in economic fundamentals, Minsky’s theorised that financial mor is a ordinary indication of any principalist dispensation and financial mor rolls concern concomitantly behind a spellliness the occupation cycle, but the Herding and Learning models explained that asset donations by a few agents submit others to buy too, not accordingly the gentleman appreciate of the asset extensions when manifold buy (which is enumerated "strategic omplementarity"), but accordingly endowors succeed to love the gentleman asset appreciate is tall when they perceive-keep others buying (Avery & Zemsky, 1998, Chari and Kehoe, 2004, Cipriani & Guarino, 2008). The Nigerian Principal Negotiate and the Turning-point The All Distribute Procriterion and the negotiate principalisation of the 233 listed equities seize activities and consummatement on the Nigerian Accumulation Diversify (NSE). Precedently the spining-point, there has been a consonant augmentation in these consummatement indicators aggravate the year (see fig. 1).
For appearrence, the All Distribute Procriterion according to axioms from www. cashcraft. com gain-ground from a appreciate of 12,137 in 2002 to 66,371. 2 points on March 5, 2008, behind a spellliness a negotiate principalisation of environing N12. 640 trillion, behind which appreciates subvert to 20,827. 17 points on December 31, 2009, behind a spellliness a negotiate principalisation of 4. 989 trillion accordingly of the meltdown. This semblances that by the end of the year 2009, the All Distribute Procriterion had obsolete a entirety distribute of environing 69%, spellliness negotiate principalisation had obsolete 61% of its appreciate.
There are anxietys in-reference-to how ahead the global financial spining-point improbable the Nigerian Principal Market, specially fond that there is virtually no cross-ownership of banks (boarding or incorrectly) betwixt Nigeria and irrelevant countries, and there is just any domiciliary hypothecation negotiate for there to be a sub-prime completion as projectt keep-adistinctly in the UK and the USA (Aluko, 2008; Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi, 2009). The dismiss of indicators of activities on the NSE precedently the escalation of the spining-point on the global semblance in July 2008 became a spring of anxiety for manifold.
It is trying to quality this dismiss to any keep-afeature rudiment, but those rudiments that may endure straightforward or instraightforward impression are as follows; i. Irrelevant portfolio boardings behind a spelllinessdrawals and deep irrelevant straightforward boarding concern endowor trust in Nigeria (Adamu, 2008; Aluko, 2008; and Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi, 2009). This is the condition accordingly most irrelevanters behind a spelllinessrepose their boardings in command to benefit their financial completions at settlement.
This defensehither the state to FDI uncertainties and vagaries, keep-adistinctly in an era where public-private keep-aunion (PPP) of colossal boarding projects such as oil and gas – LNG projects, capacity projectts, railways, housing and roads are nature submitd. ii. Another rudiment which according to Ajakaiye & Fakiyesi (2009) that had solemn impression on the accumulation negotiate is what they enumerated the ‘intensifiers’. These embody cunning explanations by the negotiate, which may endure been qualitative by the late council primal stop on the dispensation. This too embodys explanation of announcements, proclamations and rumours by the negotiate.
Examples embody the projected recapitalisation project of the accumulation negotiate players (accumulation broking firms), as polite as rumours on the ordainination of lip lending by banks. iii. The wonder of lipal lending in Nigeria, whereby endowors hypothecate money from banks to endow in other financial instruments relish IPOs of banks behind a spellliness the anticipation of making expeditious produce. This may too be ordained Nigeria's own rendering of the ‘sub-prime completion’, as it ended in an exploding domiciliary accumulation negotiate and accumulation appraisements and extraordinary produce to twain the speculators and providers of the lip funds.
This shape the banks to reach the fever of the spining-point as most lip loans besucceed trying to reimburse due to the downward diverge in the negotiate. iv. Behind a spellliness the circulation aggravatedependence on oil enrichment, the downward diverge in the appraisement of harsh oil and prospects for economic recession in the defensehither cosmos-fellow-creatures and Europe which are the negotiates for the oil, too contributed for the gravitate in the accumulation negotiate. Accordingly it face as if Nigeria's principal negotiate endure cycle substantially began behind a spellliness the dismiss of oil appraisements in July, and firm behind a spellliness its excite dismiss in September and October (Aluko, 2008; Ajakaiye & Fakaiye, 2009).
Stock Negotiate Inconsistency Accumulation inconsistency refers to the undeveloped for a fond accumulation to habit a drastic decline or extension in appreciate behind a spelllinessin a predetermined limit of spell. Investors evaluate the inconsistency of accumulation precedently making a sentence to donation a new accumulation aid, buy appended distributes of a accumulation already in the portfolio, or retail accumulation floatingly in the reposeing of the endowor. In novel months, it has not been strange to see the appreciate of superior accumulation protestes, such as the S 500, NIKKEI, DOW JONES, KOSPI, FTSE, and our own NSE-ASI diversify by as greatly as 3% in a sole day.
Unfortunately for manifold endowors, the unconcealed straightforwardion of those diversifys has been downward. To manifold, this inconsistency is stimulaten by the novel global financial spining-point. Accumulation negotiate inconsistency manages to be persistent; that is, limits of tall inconsistency as polite as low inconsistency manage to developed for months. In keep-aparticular, limits of tall inconsistency manage to appear when accumulation appraisements are gravitateing and during recessions. Accumulation negotiate inconsistency too is unequivocally cognate to inconsistency in economic variables, such as inflation, industrial genesis, and something-due rolls in the corpoadmonish sector (Schwert, 1989).
The permanence in inconsistency is not surprising: accumulation negotiate inconsistency should halt on the aggravateall sanity of the dispensation, and veriboard economic variables themselves manage to evince permanence. The permanence of accumulation negotiate yield inconsistency has two sensational implications. First, inconsistency is a representation for boarding betray. Permanence in inconsistency implies that the betray and yield trade-off diversifys in a forebodeable way aggravate the occupation cycle. Second, the permanence in inconsistency can be used to forebode coming economic variables.
For issue, Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001) semblance that accumulation negotiate inconsistency succors to forebode GDP augmentation. Inconsistency may hitheren the mitigate functioning of the financial classification and adversely concern economic consummatement (Mala & Reddy, 2007). Similarly, accumulation negotiate inconsistency too has a regard of disclaiming implications. One of the ways in which it concerns the dispensation is through its goods on consumer spending (Campbell, 1996; Starr-McCluer, 1998; Ludvigson & Steindel, 1999; and Poterba, 2000).
The impression of accumulation negotiate inconsistency on consumer spending is cognate via the opulence goods. Increased opulence allure stimulate up consumer spending. However, a gravitate in accumulation negotiate allure enfeebleden consumer trust and thus stimulate down consumer spending. Accumulation negotiate inconsistency may too concern occupation boarding (Zuliu, 1995) and economic augmentation straightforwardly (Levine & Zervos, 1996; and Arestis, Demetriades, & Luintel, 2001). A loosen in accumulation negotiate inconsistency can be interpreted as a loosen in betray of equity boarding and thus a displace of funds to hither betrayy property.
This concern could administer to a loosen in consume of funds to firms and thus new firms might endure this goods as endowors allure spin to donation of accumulation in enlightenedr, polite notorious firms. Timeliness there is a unconcealed accord on what constitutes accumulation negotiate inconsistency and, to a hitherer size, on how to compute it, there is far hither covenant on the objects of diversifys in accumulation negotiate inconsistency. Some economists see the objects of inconsistency in the manner of new, unexpected knowledge that alters expected produce on a accumulation (Engle, 1982).
Thus, diversifys in negotiate inconsistency would barely ruminate diversifys in the topical or global economic environment. Others privilege that inconsistency is objectd primarily by diversifys in trading dimensions, practices or patterns, which in spin are stimulaten by rudiments such as modifications in macroeconomic policies, displaces in endowor tolerance of betray and extensiond doubt. The space of accumulation negotiate inconsistency can succor forecasters forebode the pathwayway of an dispensation’s augmentation and the edifice of inconsistency can medium that “investors now deficiency to repose balance accumulations in their portfolio to consummate diversification”(Krainer, 2002).
Data and Methodology This examination relies on the daily All Distribute Procriterion (ASI) of the Nigerian Accumulation Diversify as reported by the diversify and on Cashcraft axiomsbase. There are 233 listed companies on the Nigerian Accumulation Diversify and the ASI is the superior procriterion that seizes the consummatement of all the distributes of the listed companies. Using the ASI, the monthly produce (%) were adapted using the produceula beneath; Where Vf is the ASI at the end of the month, and Vi is the ASI at the inception of the month. These produce were adapted for all the 48 months used in this consider.
We compute inconsistency using the criterion derangement and/or discrepancy. This is executed by dividing the limit beneath consider into two. The primitive limit comprises of 24 months consider for 2006 and 2007, the limit antecedent to the spining-point and the promote 24 considers were for 2008 and 2009, the limit of the spining-point. In examining inconsistency diversifys aggravate spell, we assimilate the discrepancys or criterion derangements of the incongruous limits and enumerate if they are statistically speakingly incongruous from each other. To regard inconsistency, the expected produce or medium for these limits produce were computed using the equation;
This implies that is the medium of the yield appreciates. Using this appreciate for and the discrepancy regard ends in a produceula for the inconsistency is fond as; . It follows that the estimation of the inconsistency firm fond by Wilmott, Howison and Dewynne (1995) is: Lastly, the expected produce and the criterion derangements allure be used in criterioning the theory whether there is a speaking contrariety betwixt the mediums of the two consider using t – statistic for criterioning contrariety of two mediums. Results and Discussions Board 1 semblances the reaching statistics of the monthly produce for the two limits.
For the limit 2006 – 2007, the medium yield was 3. 42% behind a spellliness a criterion derangement of 5. 37%. This is semblanceing that during this limit, accumulation negotiate produce was hither irresolute accordingly a hither irresolute accumulation allure endure a appraisement/yield that allure sway relatively from the medium medium aggravate spell. This is the limit when endowors endure consonant unequivocal produce on their boarding and there are allureing to endow accordingly accumulation produce are hither irresolute and their peril to betray is hither. Board 1. Feeling Statistics RETURNS %2006-072008-09 Mean3. 4233 -4. 3658 Criterion Error1. 09552. 5003 Median3. 550-4. 8400 ModeN/AN/A Criterion Deviation5. 367012. 2489 Exemplification Variance28. 8050150. 0365 Kurtosis0. 67236. 3865 Skewness0. 39191. 4372 Range24. 6669. 15 Minimum-7. 44-30. 95 Maximum17. 2238. 2 Sum82. 16-104. 78 Count2424 Source; yield output On the other workman, during the limit 2008 – 2009, there was a disclaiming medium yield of –4. 37% behind a spellliness a criterion derangement of 12. 25% semblanceing tall inconsistency in produce. This is as a end of the firm downward gravitate of the accumulation appraisements on the Nigerian Accumulation Diversify as a end of mislaying of endowors’ trust due to the global financial spining-point.
This limit is characterised by disclaiming produce which ends to tall inconsistency, and as we can see, the balance irresolute that a accumulation is, the harder it is to dissociate where it could be on a coming conclusion. Past inconsistency is associated behind a spellliness betray, the balance irresolute that a accumulation is, the balance betrayy it is. Consequently, the balance betrayy a accumulation is, the harder it is to say behind a spellliness any independentness what the coming appraisement of the accumulation allure be. When fellow-creatures endow, they would relish to endure no betray. The lowest similarity of betray that is implicated, the improve the boarding is.
Since approximately total boarding has some betray, endowors endure faceed for ways to minimize betray, so their best reaction was to dodge the accumulation negotiate and this improbable the negotiate. The other reaching statistics semblanceed that twain disposals are unequivocal or direct – skewed, mediuming that most of the produce are in the inferior interest of the disposal and there are some produce that has greatly enlightened appreciates and this haul the medium yield upward to be main than the median, specifically for the promote limit. Twain has a unequivocal kurtosis appreciate of 0. 6723 and 6. 865 indicates a disposal behind a spellliness a rascal peak than a bell – shaped curves. The end of the criterion for the theory to enumerate whether there is a speaking contrariety betwixt the mediums of the two considers is presented in board 2 beneath. The theory is; Ho: µ1 = µ2 i. e. there is no contrariety in the mediums of the two considers H1: µ1 ? µ2 i. e. there is contrariety in the mediums of the two considers. From the end of the t- criterion, the trifling theory is exceptional at 5% roll of purport. This is accordingly t = 2. 85 ; t = 2. 01. the p – appreciate computed is 0. 064 and it indicates that if the mediums are similar, the chance of observing a contrariety this enlightened in the exemplification mediums is singly 0. 0064. Established on this, there is enough exemplification to infer that the medium produce are incongruous for the two limits, and that produce are inferior in the limit of the spining-point than the limit precedently it. This confirms the discuss why there is taller inconsistency in this limit than the other limit. Board 2. t – Criterion for contrarietys in Two mediums (assumes similar population discrepancys) Axioms Hypothesized Difference0 Roll of Significance0. 05 Population 1 Exemplification Sample Size24 Exemplification Mean3. 233 Exemplification Criterion Deviation5. 367 Population 2 Exemplification Sample Size24 Exemplification Mean-4. 3658 Exemplification Criterion Deviation12. 2489 Intermediate Calculations Population 1 Exemplification Degrees of Freedom23 Population 2 Exemplification Degrees of Freedom23 Entirety Degrees of Freedom46 Pooled Variance89. 42012 Contrariety in Exemplification Means7. 7891 t Criterion Statistic2. 853384 Two-Tail Criterion Inferior Material Value-2. 012896 Upper Material Value2. 012896 p-Value0. 006463 Reject the trifling theory Source; Yield output Conclusion and monitions The tract thoughtful the size of the accumulation negotiate inconsistency in the limit of 2006 – 2009.
The limit is divided into 24 months each to consider the inconsistency of negotiate produce betwixt 2006 – 2007, and betwixt 2008 – 2009. On the reason of the ends it was projectt that the limit 2006 – 2007 is hither irresolute than the limit of 2008 – 2009; and this is due to the global financial that endure improbable endowors’ trust. Past inconsistency is associated behind a spellliness betray, the balance irresolute that a accumulation is, the balance betrayy it is. Consequently, the balance betrayy a accumulation is, the harder it is to say behind a spellliness any independentness what the coming appraisement of the accumulation allure be. When fellow-creatures endow, they would relish to endure no betray.
The lowest similarity of betray that is implicated, the improve the boarding is. Past approximately total boarding has some betray, endowors endure faceed for ways to minimize betray, so their best reaction was to dodge the accumulation negotiate and this improbable the negotiate. The monition is that the accumulation negotiate instruments deficiency to be parti-colored separate produce equity instruments to balance of urban protection instruments. References Adamu, A. (2008). The Property of global financial spining-point on Nigerian Economy. Interpolitical Journal of Boarding and Finance Vol. 1. #1&2. Ajakaiye, O. & Fakiyesi, T. (2009). Global financial spining-point Discussion tract 8: Nigeria.
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Stock negotiate opulence and consumer spending. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economics Discussion Tract Series, 8/20. UNCTAD (2009). Global economic meltdown. Geneva: United Nation Conference on Trade and harvest Wilmott, P. , Howison, S. , & Dewynne, J. (1995). The Mathematics of Financial Derivatives. New York: Cambridge University Press. Zuliu, H (1995). Accumulation negotiate inconsistency and corpoadmonish boarding”, IMF Working Paper, 95/102. www. cashcraft. com Appendices 1. Monthly produce computed using the NSE-ASI MONTHS/ YEARSRETURNS %MONTHS/ YEARSRETURNS % Jan-06-1. 69Jan-08-0. 02 Feb-060. 30Feb-08-11. 1 Mar-06-2. 00Mar-08-4. 01 Apr-06-0. 75Apr-08-5. 67 May-065. 45May-08-0. 33 Jun-065. 66Jun-080. 00 Jul-066. 75Jul-08-6. 90 Aug-0617. 22Aug-08-9. 22 Sep-060. 67Sep-08-6. 07 Oct-060. 35Oct-08-20. 96 Nov-06-3. 84Nov-08-9. 08 Dec-064. 92Dec-08-2. 37 Jan-078. 93Jan-09-30. 95 Feb-0710. 62Feb-097. 17 Mar-074. 87Mar-09-12. 60 Apr-078. 44Apr-098. 15 May-075. 95May-0938. 20 Jun-072. 44Jun-09-12. 63 Jul-070. 94Jul-09-7. 09 Aug-07-7. 44Aug-09-10. 42 Sep-07-0. 12Sep-09-2. 2 Oct-07-0. 16Oct-09-3. 08 Nov-077. 82Nov-09-3. 64 Dec-076. 83Dec-090. 05 Figure 1. Accumulation negotiate consummatement, 2002-2009 Source: Extracted from Ajakaiye and Fakiyesi (2009)