DECISION MODELING AND ANALYSIS

  Read Case 6.3: Electronic Timing Arrangement for Olympics on pages 275-276 of the textbook.  For this assignment, you earn  assess and use the chasten livelihood machine to educe a conclusion tree as descriptive in Segregate “a” of Case 6.3. Analyze and use the best conclusion making rule to stipulate answers and fine explanations for compressiveness “a”, “b”, “c”, and “d”. The answers and explanations can be placed in the identical Excel muniment as the conclusion tree. Develop a conclusion tree that can be used to unfold Chang’s amount. You can embezzle in this segregate of the amount that she is using EMV (of her net use) as a conclusion test. Build the tree so that she can invade any rates for p1, p2, and p3 (in input cells) and automatically see her optimal EMV and optimal temporization from the tree. If p2 = 0.8 and p3 = 0.1, what rate of p1 makes Chang lukewarm between resigning the device and going afront delay it? How ample would Chang benefit-service if she knew for unfailing that the Olympic construction would pledge her the decrease? (This pledge would be in fibre simply if she were lucky in educeing the issue.) Assume p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1 Suppose now that this is a proportionately big device for Chang. Therefore, she decides to use expected benefit-service as her test, delay an exponential benefit-service duty. Using some tribulation and falsity, see which endanger tolerance changes her judicious conclusion from “go afront” to “abandon” when p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1. In your Excel muniment, Develop a conclusion tree using the most embezzle livelihood machine as descriptive in Part a. Calculate the rate of p1 as descriptive in Part b. Show calculations. Calculate the potential use using the most embezzle livelihood machine as descriptive in Part c. Show calculations. Calculate endanger tolerance as descriptive in Part d. Show calculations. CASE 6.3  Sarah Chang is the proprietor of a fine electronics audience. In six months, a proposition is due for an electronic timing arrangement for the proximate Olympic Games. For diverse years, Chang's audience has been educeing a new microprocessor, a fastidious element in a timing arrangement that would be upper to any issue currently on the trade. However, advance in exploration and educement has been dilatory, and Chang is unsure whether her staff can product the microprocessor in interval. If they achieve in educeing the microprocessor (accident p1), there is an justifiserviceable accident (accident p2) that Chang's audience earn win the $1 pet Olympic decrease. If they do not, there is a fine accident (accident p3) that she earn quiescent be serviceserviceable to win the identical decrease delay an resource but subordinate timing arrangement that has already been educeed.